Nistler CoBPA Faculty Research

Celebrate the impact of our research.

Dr. Cullen Goenner paper accepted into the Financial Review

Cullen Goenner

Please join us in congratulating Dr. Cullen Goenner, Professor of Economics and Finance, for his recent paper accepted for publication in the Financial Review (JQL Level 3).

Title: “Uncertain Times and Predictions of Bank Failures”

Authors: Cullen Goenner (University of North Dakota)

Financial Review – JQL Level 3

ABSTRACT

The Great Financial Crisis shows that bank failure in the United States, while rare, is a concern during uncertain times. Our interest is in the ability to predict future failures at the start of a crisis, when the recent past has few events on which to base our inferences. We show that policymakers using estimates based on the S & L crisis would identify in early 2009 that 2.0% of banks were in critical condition and 7.0% were unhealthy. This is comparable to the 1.7% of banks that failed within a year and the 3.9% of banks that would fail during the crisis.

To read the paper and learn more about Professor Goenner’s research visit http://www.ndeconomist.com/research.html