{"id":22599,"date":"2021-10-14T15:57:16","date_gmt":"2021-10-14T20:57:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.und.edu\/und-today\/?p=22599"},"modified":"2021-10-14T15:57:16","modified_gmt":"2021-10-14T20:57:16","slug":"access-collaboration-and-especially-retention","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.und.edu\/und-today\/2021\/10\/access-collaboration-and-especially-retention\/","title":{"rendered":"Access, collaboration and (especially) retention"},"content":{"rendered":"

Those are the stars college administrators should steer by as they navigate rough demographic seas, Eye of the Hawk lecturer Nathan Grawe said at UND<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
Nathan Grawe,, the Ada M. Harrison Distinguished Teaching Professor of the Social Sciences at Carleton College in Northfield, Minn., delivered the Eye of the Hawk Lecture at the North Dakota Museum of Art at UND on Oct. 12. Photo by Tom Dennis\/UND Today.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

There\u2019s good news and, well, very sobering news about the population challenges facing higher education in North Dakota.<\/p>\n

So let\u2019s get to the good news first:<\/p>\n

Where demographics are concerned, North Dakota actually shares a favorable outlook with some pretty august institutions: namely, selective universities such as Harvard, Princeton and Yale.<\/p>\n

In North Dakota\u2019s case, that\u2019s because the past decade\u2019s population surge means the state\u2019s high-school graduation classes are likely to keep growing, at least through the 2020s, said Nathan Grawe, the economist who delivered Tuesday\u2019s Eye of the Hawk Lecture at UND.<\/p>\n

In the selective schools\u2019 case, the upbeat projections result from the huge draw that institutional prestige continues to be in attracting students.<\/p>\n

But in neither case should the schools rely too heavily on those favorable trends, Grawe stressed.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf we think that because the projections are positive in our little area of the world, we can just coast, that\u2019s probably incorrect,\u201d said Grawe, whose home institution \u2013 Carleton College in Northfield, Minn. \u2013 is ranked among America\u2019s top liberal-arts colleges.<\/p>\n

\u201cNone of us is going to be immune to the effects of a 17 percent decline in the number of babies nationwide.\u201d Instead, colleges and universities will have to be agile as never before; and that\u2019s what Grawe\u2019s talk was all about.<\/p>\n

\"\"
UND President Andy Armacost chats with Nathan Grawe, economist at Carleton College in Northfield, Minn., before Grawe’s Eye of the Hawk Lecture on Oct. 12. Photo by Tom Dennis\/UND Today.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Hawk\u2019s-eye view<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The Eye of the Hawk Series brings perspectives from visiting scholars or experts in a given field to UND. The idea is for the expert to offer an overview of the landscape from 10,000 feet, exactly as a hawk would see, series organizers say.<\/p>\n

Grawe, the Ada M. Harrison Distinguished Teaching Professor of the Social Sciences at Carleton, spoke before an audience of about 100 at the North Dakota Museum of Art. He\u2019s a labor economist who has published extensively on how recent demographic shifts are likely to affect demand for higher education.<\/p>\n

And in fact, that work so impressed the UND faculty leaders who are grappling with those shifts that the leaders decided to invite Grawe to campus, said UND President Andrew Armacost in introducing Grawe.<\/p>\n

Armacost first thanked the event\u2019s sponsors, who include Jim and Barbara Williams and Rick and Jody Burgum, as well as Bank North.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd let me also thank Professors John Shabb and Jeff VanLooy,\u201d the president continued.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt was John and Jeff who, through their work on UND\u2019s Task Force on the Future of Higher Education, set in motion today\u2019s lecture. They had recommended that their group dig into Nathan\u2019s most recent book, and it had a profound impact on the members of that Task Force.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"
Higher education in America has undergone demographic shifts before, and not only survived but thrived, said Nathan Grawe in his Eye of the Hawk Lecture at the North Dakota Museum of Art. Photo by Tom Dennis\/UND Today.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

A higher-ed \u2018apocalypse\u2019?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In his talk, Grawe didn\u2019t hesitate to deliver the demographic bad news. How bad? This bad: A Washington Post story describing demographic trends and their possible impact on higher education used the term, \u201capocalypse.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cNow, I don\u2019t think that\u2019s apt, and I think I can give you a better analogy by the time we\u2019re done,\u201d Grawe said. But it\u2019s vital to understand the depth and nature of those trends so that effective solutions can be designed.<\/p>\n

At the heart of the challenge is birth rates. As a PowerPoint slide displayed, a chart of the number of births in America over the past 45 years describes a parabola, with the arc passing upward though 3.6 million in 1980, peaking at about 4.3 million in 2007 \u2013 and then plummeting back to 1980 levels last year.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re seeing birth numbers we haven\u2019t seen in four decades,\u201d he said. And \u201cit\u2019s not even clear that we\u2019re anywhere near the bottom. \u2026 I remember the \u2018good old days,\u2019 roughly 2000, when I found it humorous to read about how the Russian government was encouraging people to take off work to go have babies \u2013 or at least do the activity that leads to that.<\/p>\n

\u201cWell, it\u2019s not so funny anymore.\u201d<\/p>\n

But tectonic shifts have challenged higher education before, Grawe noted. Think of the \u201cbirth dearth\u201d of the 1970s that followed the Baby Boom, as well as the switch to online learning that the pandemic forced on colleges as recently as last year.<\/p>\n

Higher education weathered those storms \u2013 and could very well do the same through this one, Grawe said. \u201cBecause I think campuses are filled with really smart, creative people who are going to look at this problem and say, \u2018Let\u2019s adapt.\u2019 \u201c<\/p>\n

\"\"
Shown here is Nathan Grawe, Carleton College economist, delivering his Eye of the Hawk Lecture at the North Dakota Museum of Art at UND. Grawe is the author of The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Change,” among other works, Photo by Tom Dennis\/UND Today.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Learning from others<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Here are three promising ways in which forward-thinking institutions are adapting nationwide.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Access:<\/strong> One strategy that many universities already have embraced is to reach out to different student populations, including adult students, international students and \u2013 importantly \u2013 underrepresented minorities. The latter group, as evidenced by the changing student populations in North Dakota and every other state, already is becoming a much bigger share of the U.S. population overall.<\/p>\n

And where access is concerned, here\u2019s a useful point from Pam Eddinger, president of Bunker Hill Community College in Massachusetts: Remember that accommodating new student groups can often require rethinking everything you do.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne example Pam gave me was the orientation process, which required on-campus activities for two whole days,\u201d Grawe said. \u201cSo with an adult learner market, that\u2019s just not sensible.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2022 Collaboration<\/strong> between institutions and even systems is another approach. \u201cHere\u2019s an example from North Carolina, where private four-year institutions are collaborating with two-year institutions on major-specific articulation agreements,\u201d Grawe said.<\/p>\n

Rather than having students navigate the two-year college to four-year college process alone, \u201cby partnering with institutions, we can make it more seamless for students so they can be retained at a higher rate.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2022 And speaking of retention<\/strong>, that\u2019s the third and likely most important strategy, Grawe said. Because \u201cin American higher education, a lot of students enter, and then don\u2019t come back.\u201d<\/p>\n

Given the dramatic drop in birth rates, keeping existing students and helping them graduate seems a much more promising approach than does attracting whole new populations, Grawe said.<\/p>\n

Consider the two-year college to four-year college transition. \u201cSome 80 percent of two-year enrolling students say they intend to get a bachelor\u2019s degree, but only 30 percent will transfer to a four-year institution within four years, and only 13 percent will earn that bachelor\u2019s in six,\u201d Grawe said.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a lot of \u201clost students\u201d along the way \u2013 and with better approaches, good numbers of those students could be retained.<\/p>\n

The next 100 years<\/strong><\/h2>\n

So:<\/p>\n

At St. Cloud State University in Minnesota, a quick survey in the third week of classes identifies students who are academically capable, but at risk because of low social belonging. Armed with that information, faculty and staff can help draw those students into the community.<\/p>\n

At Rutgers University in New Jersey, they\u2019re training student work supervisors in mentoring, thereby making students\u2019 work experience another point at which students can be connected with supports.<\/p>\n

At Wheaton College in Massachusetts, the institution is offering compensation that\u2019s based on meeting institutional goals. \u201cThat\u2019s a way of making this problem something that we all own, rather than simply turning it over to, say, an enrollment management office,\u201d Grawe said.<\/p>\n

These and other creative approaches may help higher ed not only avoid the apocalypse, but also emerge better equipped and more respected than it is today, Grawe said. \u201cLike your body, when you put it through a workout: It\u2019s a system that actually gets stronger when placed under stress.\u201d<\/p>\n

With such strategies in place, \u201cwhen we get to the year 2040 or 2045, perhaps we\u2019ll look back \u2013 like me at my workout \u2013 not saying, \u2018Wow, that was fun,\u2019 but maybe, \u2018It was worth it.\u2019<\/p>\n

\u201cIt spurred us on to changes that made us stronger and better situated to fulfill our missions for the next 100 years.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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